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In his original complaint, Braun also cited a study that found that nearly half of respondents were thinking of using illegal gambling services due to legal restrictions.
In recent weeks, German authorities conducted a crackdown on an alleged illegal online gambling operation suspected of facilitating wagers totalling approximately €5.86 billion over a 30-month period.
The DSWV trade body, representing licensed sports-betting operators, broadly welcomed the enforcement action as a necessary response to the illegal market’s growth and associated risks.
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That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.
“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.
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Also, Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire and 2026 California gubernatorial candidate, purchased approximately $10,000 in contracts tied to his campaign. He was fined $31,770 and suspended for three years.
Each settlement involved cooperation with Kalshi’s investigation.
What distinguishes Santos’ penalty is the exchange’s allegation that he actively issued false or misleading statements to alter prices and profited materially, violating additional rules such as failure to cooperate and manipulative conduct.